Archives

Search Archives

Transforming Secondary Education: New $100 million initiative to improve education quality across the nation.
Learn More »

Recent Spotlights »

View all Archives - Environment and Development »

Competition in the U.S. Energy Industry







POLICY ALTERNATIVES

There are three major policy alternatives in the nuclear enriching area: maintain AEC control and operation, establish a government corporation, or attempt to promote a competitive private industry. In weighing each of these alternatives, the impact on national security, on costs of enriching, on progressivity of the industry, and on prices charged must be evaluated.

Projected Enrichment Supply and Demand
Calendar Year Total World Availability Total World Demand Excess Demand To Be Met by New Plants
(cumulative metric tons separative work) (annual increment)
1973 33,760 14,475
1974 47,860 24,067
1975 63,780 35,365
1976 81,710 51,031
1977 101,760 70,444
1978 124,360 94,763
1979 150,560 124,540
1980 180,320 159,319
1981 211,970 207,719
1982 244,620 252,622 8,002
1983 278,520 304,001 17,479
1984 313,920 363,010 23,609
1985 350,820 428,579 28,669
Source: Nuclear Industry, October 1972, p. 7.


From a national security point of view, it is obvious that government control and operation whether under a government corporation or by continuing AEC operation would be the safest. Fewest people would need be given access to sensitive material. In fact if a viable competitive private industry is to be established, most if not all data on enrichment technology must be declassified. True free entry cannot be provided if AEC clearance is necessary to receive access to the technology.

Assuming a private industry would imply complete declassification of enrichment technology would this imply a significant reduction in national security? It is not obvious that it would. Even though centrifuges can be constructed on a considerably smaller scale than diffusion plants and even though they take significantly less power than diffusion plants, declassification of the technology does not imply that every country in the world has the