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Competition in the U.S. Energy Industry
POLICY
ALTERNATIVES
There are
three major policy alternatives in the nuclear enriching area:
maintain AEC control and operation, establish a government
corporation, or attempt to promote a competitive private industry.
In weighing each of these alternatives, the impact on national
security, on costs of enriching, on progressivity of the industry,
and on prices charged must be evaluated.
Projected Enrichment Supply and Demand
| Calendar Year |
Total World
Availability |
Total World
Demand |
Excess Demand To Be Met
by New Plants |
|
(cumulative metric tons
separative work) |
(annual
increment) |
| 1973 |
33,760 |
14,475 |
|
| 1974 |
47,860 |
24,067 |
|
| 1975 |
63,780 |
35,365 |
|
| 1976 |
81,710 |
51,031 |
|
| 1977 |
101,760 |
70,444 |
|
| 1978 |
124,360 |
94,763 |
|
| 1979 |
150,560 |
124,540 |
|
| 1980 |
180,320 |
159,319 |
|
| 1981 |
211,970 |
207,719 |
|
| 1982 |
244,620 |
252,622 |
8,002 |
| 1983 |
278,520 |
304,001 |
17,479 |
| 1984 |
313,920 |
363,010 |
23,609 |
| 1985 |
350,820 |
428,579 |
28,669 |
| Source: Nuclear
Industry, October 1972, p. 7. |
From a
national security point of view, it is obvious that government
control and operation whether under a government corporation or by
continuing AEC operation would be the safest. Fewest people would
need be given access to sensitive material. In fact if a viable
competitive private industry is to be established, most if not all
data on enrichment technology must be declassified. True free entry
cannot be provided if AEC clearance is necessary to receive access
to the technology.
Assuming a
private industry would imply complete declassification of
enrichment technology would this imply a significant reduction in
national security? It is not obvious that it would. Even though
centrifuges can be constructed on a considerably smaller scale than
diffusion plants and even though they take significantly less power
than diffusion plants, declassification of the technology does not
imply that every country in the world has the