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Nuclear Theft: Risks and Safeguards
to prevent illicit use of fission explosive materials have a
direct bearing on the control of illicit production of H-bombs.
Finally, the damage that could be inflicted by fission explosions
provides, we believe, sufficient justification for effective
safeguards designed to prevent theft or illicit production of
fission explosive materials. The possibility of pure fusion
explosives is discussed briefly at the end of this chapter.
Nuclear
materials do not necessarily have to explode to cause severe damage
over large areas. Some radioactive materials, including many that
are produced in nuclear power reactors, are among the most toxic
substances known. Radiological weapons that would disperse fission
products or other radioactive materials have been seriously
considered for military use. We have no evidence, however, that any
government has found such weapons to be sufficiently effective,
compared to chemical or biological warfare agents and other weapons
(including nuclear explosives), to include them in military
arsenals. Nevertheless, we have considered several types of
radiological devices that might be used by terrorists or other
non-governmental groups—or perhaps even by
individuals—to expose large numbers of people to radiation or
to cause the evacuation of urban areas or major industrial
facilities. We have given particular attention to possibilities for
dispersing plutonium since that material is present in large
quantities in nuclear power fuel cycles and is exceedingly toxic if
breathed into the lungs in the form of very small particles.
RESOURCES REQUIRED TO MAKE FISSION
EXPLOSIVES
Objectives
The time and
resources required to design and make nuclear explosives depend
strongly on the type of explosive wanted. It is much more difficult
to make large numbers of reliable, efficient, and lightweight
nuclear warheads for a national military program than to make
several crude, inefficient nuclear explosive devices with
unpredictable yields in the range of, say, one hundred to several
thousand tons of ordinary high explosive. This is one reason why
experts in the design and construction of nuclear explosives often
disagree with each other about how difficult it is to make them.
Those who have worked many years on the development of nuclear
warheads for ever more sophisticated nuclear-tipped missile systems
often base their opinions on their own experience, without having
thought specifically about nuclear explosive devices that are
designed to be as easy to make as possible. Unlike most national
governments, a clandestine nuclear bomb maker may care little
whether his bombs are heavy, inefficient, and unpredictable. They
may serve his purposes so long as they are transportable by
automobile and are very likely to explode with a yield equivalent
to at least 100 tons of chemical explosive.
Thus, aside
from the essential fission explosive materials, there is a wide
range of resources required to make different types of nuclear
explosives