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Nuclear Theft: Risks and Safeguards







to prevent illicit use of fission explosive materials have a direct bearing on the control of illicit production of H-bombs. Finally, the damage that could be inflicted by fission explosions provides, we believe, sufficient justification for effective safeguards designed to prevent theft or illicit production of fission explosive materials. The possibility of pure fusion explosives is discussed briefly at the end of this chapter.

Nuclear materials do not necessarily have to explode to cause severe damage over large areas. Some radioactive materials, including many that are produced in nuclear power reactors, are among the most toxic substances known. Radiological weapons that would disperse fission products or other radioactive materials have been seriously considered for military use. We have no evidence, however, that any government has found such weapons to be sufficiently effective, compared to chemical or biological warfare agents and other weapons (including nuclear explosives), to include them in military arsenals. Nevertheless, we have considered several types of radiological devices that might be used by terrorists or other non-governmental groups—or perhaps even by individuals—to expose large numbers of people to radiation or to cause the evacuation of urban areas or major industrial facilities. We have given particular attention to possibilities for dispersing plutonium since that material is present in large quantities in nuclear power fuel cycles and is exceedingly toxic if breathed into the lungs in the form of very small particles.

Footnotes

Footnote :

a We define"fission explosive materials" to mean those materials that, without further chemical processing or isotope separation, can be directly used as the core material for fission explosives. We define "nuclear weapon materials" to mean those materials that can be used as the core material for fission explosives after chemical conversions involving processes much simpler than chemical reprocessing of irradiated nuclear materials or isotope separation. Hence, fission explosive materials is a narrower term than nuclear weapon materials. As we shall see, these two categories of nuclear materials are the primary concern of this study.

RESOURCES REQUIRED TO MAKE FISSION EXPLOSIVES

Objectives

The time and resources required to design and make nuclear explosives depend strongly on the type of explosive wanted. It is much more difficult to make large numbers of reliable, efficient, and lightweight nuclear warheads for a national military program than to make several crude, inefficient nuclear explosive devices with unpredictable yields in the range of, say, one hundred to several thousand tons of ordinary high explosive. This is one reason why experts in the design and construction of nuclear explosives often disagree with each other about how difficult it is to make them. Those who have worked many years on the development of nuclear warheads for ever more sophisticated nuclear-tipped missile systems often base their opinions on their own experience, without having thought specifically about nuclear explosive devices that are designed to be as easy to make as possible. Unlike most national governments, a clandestine nuclear bomb maker may care little whether his bombs are heavy, inefficient, and unpredictable. They may serve his purposes so long as they are transportable by automobile and are very likely to explode with a yield equivalent to at least 100 tons of chemical explosive.

Thus, aside from the essential fission explosive materials, there is a wide range of resources required to make different types of nuclear explosives