Alternative Assumptions
Most current
forecasts assume that the only types of nuclear power plants likely
to be built in large numbers in the United States by the year 2000
are the LWR, the HTGR, or the LMFBR. We have therefore developed
several "scenarios" based on different assumptions about the
relative growth of total electrical generating capacities for each
of these three types of plants.
For this
purpose we have adopted the AEC projections for total installed
nuclear electric capacity. These projections are shown in Table
4–1, along with rough estimates of the annual electrical
energy output for all nuclear power plants, the annual costs of
nuclear-electric power, and the total cumulative capital investment
in nuclear power installations. The electrical output estimates are
based on the assumption that plants, on the average, operate at 70
percent of their potential capacity (i.e., their average "plant
factor" is 70 percent) in order to allow for shutdowns for
refueling and repairs and differences between average and peak
demands for power. We have used a figure of $600 per kilowatt of
installed capacity to estimate the capital costs of all parts of
fuel cycles. This figure is highly uncertain and varies
significantly from one type of fuel cycle to another. It also
represents 1973 dollars and therefore does not take into account
inflation. The cost of nuclear electric power is assumed to be 1.2
cents per kilowatt hour, a figure that also does not take inflation
into account. These rough cost estimates will serve to place in
perspective the costs of safeguards against nuclear theft that
might be absorbed without causing significant changes in the
economics of nuclear power. These safeguards costs are considered
in Chapter 9.
Table 4–1. U.S. Nuclear Power
Forecast
| Year Ending |
Installed Nuclear
Electric Capacity (Thousands of megawatts) |
Annual Nuclear Electric
Energy Output (Billions of kilowatt hours) |
Annual Nuclear Electric
Power Costs (Billions of dollars) |
Total Cumulative
Capital Investment (Billions of dollars) |
| 1980 |
130 |
68 |
8.1 |
79 |
| 1985 |
280 |
150 |
18 |
170 |
| 1990 |
510 |
280 |
34 |
300 |
| 1995 |
810 |
455 |
55 |
490 |
| 2000 |
1,200 |
685 |
82 |
720 |
Even if one
accepts the AEC projection of overall nuclear power capacity and
the assumption that it will be met by building only LWR, HTGR, and
LMFBR plants, many factors would affect the actual mix of these
types of nuclear power plants and their associated fuel cycle
components. These include the following comparisons, not
necessarily listed according to their importance: