Reasons

There are two reasons why a criminal group might want nuclear weapon materials. One is obvious: money, which might be obtained through black market or ransom dealings in the materials themselves, in fabricated fission explosive devices, or in fabricated plutonium dispersal devices. The corollary reason is that the possession of a few fission explosives or radiological weapons might place a criminal group rather effectively beyond the reach of law enforcement authorities. A criminal organization might use the threat of nuclear violence against an urban population to deter police action directed against its nuclear theft operations. The organization might also use nuclear threats to extort from the government a tacit or explicit relaxation of law enforcement activities directed against a broad range of other lucrative criminal operations.

Scope of the Risk

To what extent would criminal groups become interested in the potential for financial gains in illicit trade in nuclear material? It may be argued that the potential gains are so large that a wide variety of criminal organizations would attempt to exploit the possibilities of nuclear theft. To the contrary, however, it may be argued that criminal groups primarily interested in money are likely to be politically conservative, and that they would not develop a black market in a commodity such as nuclear material which could have revolutionary political implications. Moreover, a large nuclear theft might prompt a massive governmental crackdown and lead to a widespread public outcry, whereas the continued existence of organized crime on a large scale might depend on the susceptibility of some government officials to corruption and on a degree of public indifference.

The possession of a few nuclear weapons as a deterrent against law enforcement may be viewed by a criminal group as more of a risk than a benefit. In order to obtain the advantage of a deterrent effect, the criminal group possessing such weapons would have to be willing to inflict large scale, indiscriminate harm on society. Moreover, like nuclear war between nations, if the deterrent failed and a criminal group either used nuclear weapons or failed to use them, the group itself would probably not survive the crisis as an organization.