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Nuclear Theft: Risks and Safeguards







NUCLEAR POWER GROWTH OUTSIDE THE U.S. (EXCLUDING COMMUNIST COUNTRIES): 1980–2000

The industrialized nations of the world are increasing their energy consumption at a rate equal to or greater than the U.S. To meet the growing electric energy demand, many of these nations are turning to nuclear power stations. Commercial nuclear power development is presently being pursued by more than two dozen nations, with most of the development being centered in Europe and Japan. The AEC projects that the installed nuclear power capacity will be 140 thousand megawatts at the end of 1980, 578 thousand megawatts at the end of 1990, and 1,460 thousand megawatts at the end of the year 2000 (see Table B–4).

Table B–4. Foreign Forecast of Installed Nuclear Power Capacity (Thousands of Megawatts) Excluding Communist Countries
Year Ending LWR AGR + HWR HTGR LMFBR Total
1979 90 25 0 0 115
1980 108 32 0 0 140
1981 130 39 0 0 169
1982 152 46 0 0 198
1983 173 58 0 0 231
1984 202 62 0 0 264
1985 234 69 0 1 304
1986 271 75 2 2 350
1987 315 80 7 3 405
1988 345 82 15 7 451
1989 383 92 23 14 512
1990 424 102 31 21 578
1991 478 112 40 30 660
1992 536 121 49 33 740
1993 543 125 66 66 800
1994 596 145 61 77 880
1995 636 159 68 106 970
1996 671 164 75 149 1,060
1997 703 175 81 190 1,150
1998 738 191 88 221 1,240
1999 766 193 93 297 1,350
2000 803 208 109 337 1,457


Since this study is primarily concerned with U.S. safeguards, less attention has been given to the worldwide nuclear material flow projections than to the U.S. nuclear material flows. Furthermore, it would not be possible to treat all foreign nations as a single unit as implied by the computer model used for the U.S. projections. For example, in the U.S. projections the number of support facilities is dependent upon the total megawatts of installed nuclear