The areas in
which plutonium contamination would be significant enough to
require evacuation and subsequent decontamination are roughly
estimated to be about 100 times the areas subjected to a lethal
dose. About a dozen grams of plutonium dispersed throughout the
largest enclosed building in the world might make the entire
building unusable for the many weeks that would be required to
complete costly decontamination operations.
The dispersal
in large open areas of plutonium with lethal concentrations of
radioactivity is likely to be much more difficult to carry out
effectively than dispersal indoors. The height of the affected zone
would be difficult to hold down to a few feet. Even a very gentle,
two-mile-per-hour breeze would disperse the suspended material
several kilometers downwind in an hour. This would make it
extremely difficult to use less than about one kilogram of
plutonium to produce severe radiation hazards. With a few
dozens of grams of plutonium, however, it would be relatively easy
to contaminate several square kilometers sufficiently to require
the evacuation of people in the area and necessitate a very
difficult and expensive decontamination operation.
After the
plutonium-bearing particles settled in an area, they would remain a
potential hazard until they were leached below the surface of the
ground or were carried off by wind or surface water drainage. As
long as the particles remained on the surface, something might
happen to draw them back into the air. Contamination levels of
about a microgram of plutonium per square meter would be likely to
be deemed unacceptable for public health. Thus, in an urban area
with little rainfall, a few grams of plutonium optimally dispersed
out of doors might seriously contaminate a few square kilometers,
but only over a very much smaller area would it pose a lethal
threat.
So far in our
discussion, we have considered only plutonium–239, the
isotope of plutonium that is produced in the largest quantities in
nuclear reactors. Plutonium–238, which is also made in
significant quantities in some reactors, is considerably more toxic
than plutonium–239. Its half-life for emitting alpha
particles is only about eighty-seven years, instead of about 25,000
years; one gram of plutonium–238 therefore emits alpha
particles at approximately 300 times the rate that
plutonium–239 does. As a result, the lethal dose of
plutonium–238 is about 1/300 of what it is for
plutonium–239. We mention this because plutonium–238
has been used in radioisotope-powered nuclear "batteries," and is
being seriously considered for use in power supplies for heart
pumps in people suffering from certain types of heart disorders. As
much as sixty grams of plutonium–238, the equivalent in
toxicity of almost twenty kilograms of plutonium–239,
may be in each such heart-pump battery. This is enough material to
produce serious contamination of hundreds of square miles, if
dispersed in the form of small particles.
A variety of
ways to disperse plutonium with timed devices are conceivable.
These would allow the threatener to leave the area before the
material is dispersed. Any plutonium contained inside such a device
would not be a hazard until it was released.