Total Energy Consumption for the County

All of our conclusions thus far have been drawn from per-capita energy results. If a scarcity of petroleum should develop, total energy consumption would become a more relevant figure to examine. Table 2-9 shows the expected total energy consumption for travel on a weekday in the study area, for the early 1970s, and for the nine future options for 1985 and 2000. (Again we return to the assumed reversal-decentralization trend.) The total energy results vary according to the options in much the same way as per-capita results; the conclusions already stated can be applied to total energy consumption as well. The only difference is that because of the increased population in 2000, the trends for total energy use are less dramatic than for per-capita energy consumption.

Under the assumptions this study makes, future energy consumption for the population as a whole is considerably higher than present energy consumption, except for Scenario C. This implies that future energy consumption for transportation in the area studied here, and thus probably in many other metropolitan areas, will increase significantly by 1985 and even more so by 2000, unless some of Scenario C's district changes in life style and energy characteristics of automobiles take place.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Many of the energy-reducing strategies considered in this analysis focus directly on the automobile. At present, in our study area, the auto is responsible for 98 percent of the total energy consumed for urban transportation. Is this dominance likely to continue? From Table 2-10 we see that the auto's role varies widely among the nine options.

Where the auto is far and away the principal energy-consumer, as in Options A₁, A₂, and B₃, any improvement in its energy efficiency produces a proportionate decrease in the overall energy consumed to transport people. In these cases, an emphasis on fuel-thrifty automobiles is the technological measure which makes the biggest difference. As we progress through other options, the combined use of efficient autos and other energy-thrifty modes dilutes the